Fierceness to win 2024 Kentucky Derby among best bets to make ahead of Churchill Downs race

While some years, the Kentucky Derby is characterized by a wide-open field, that doesn’t appear to be the case as we get into the final countdown to the 150th edition of the world’s most iconic horse race.

Even with legendary trainer Bob Baffert once again barred from the event, there’s a clear pair of favorites at the top of the odds board, with a few more contenders to challenge that duo a bit down the line.

With the post-position draw complete, let’s discuss the top contenders and take a look at an approach for placing bets on the most-favored horses in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.

Fierceness, the Derby favorite, might have been the biggest beneficiary of the draw.

While the 17th post is viewed by many as “cursed” because it has never produced a Derby winner, a recent trend toward winners coming from the outside positions definitely favors Fierceness.

This is especially true given the horse’s reputation as a speedster. He should be able to use the wide-open space of the outside to his advantage.

Fierceness dominated the Florida Derby in late March, another notable win after a spectacular debut last August at a muddy Saratoga track. That could prove to be a valuable experience with a threat of rain on Saturday in Louisville.

Fierceness has had a relatively uneven start to his career, but the talent is undeniable.

The two top contenders were drawn nowhere close to each other, so they’ll have to fight for position or pull away from the pack in order for us to watch them duke it out directly.

Sierra Leone, considered an impeccable late-running closer, is going to have to do some work to find the space to make this the two-horse race many expect it to be.

This horse is coming into the Derby in great form, with some impressive wins under his belt.

He’s praised as one of the most well-bred contenders in recent years. If there’s a colt in the field that can overcome a challenging draw to run the race his team would like to see, this just might be the one.

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While Catching Freedom is rightfully seen as a relative outsider in this race, the horse with the next-highest odds after the projected pair of leaders is definitely worth discussing.

This colt is a late runner, much in the same style as Sierra Leone, and is in a slightly better position to pursue that strategy.

Catching Freedom has won two of his three 2024 starts, with the one outlier being a third-place finish in New Orleans – a race won by Sierra Leone.

He also won twice at Churchill Downs last fall, so he’ll be in a familiar setting.

Some experts are fading Fierceness due to a perceived inability to win consecutive races.

While a packed racing schedule can be demanding for the animals and the curse of the 17th post looms large in the eyes of some, trends and superstitions are not nearly as relevant as the objective challenge of overcoming post position to run a winning race.

Expect Fierceness, the slightly-favored horse, to come out on top.

So how can we turn that into value? When backing two relatively chalky horses, individual bets to place or as part of an exacta box might not provide the payout you’d like to see.

Instead, consider a true exacta with Fierceness as the champion.

If you don’t like staying within the lines, so to speak, and believe that some degree of chaos will ensue, back Catching Freedom to place.

This horse is a consistent runner who should be able to capitalize should Fierceness fall victim to fatigue or if Sierra Leone struggles to overcome his inside post position.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.